UFC 230 was without a main event fight for months, fans speculated Jon Jones could be the guy to headline the card which didn’t end up happening.
The UFC announced Valentina Shevchenko would fight against relatively unknown Sijara Eubanks for the vacant women’s Flyweight Title. The decision was met with criticism, after two years of blockbuster main events this one seemed underwhelming to say the least. A few weeks later after Derrick Lewis’s memorable knockout & post-fight interview, it was decided he would challenge Daniel Cormier for the Heavyweight Title instead.
There have been numerous changes to this main card. Nate Diaz vs Dustin Poirier was removed, Shevchenko vs Eubanks was replaced, Luke Rockhold vs Chris Weidman was changed to Jacare Souza vs Weidman (due to an injury), David Branch who was slated to face Jacare is now fighting Jared Cannonier. It looks almost a completely different card to the one we expected a month ago. Nevertheless, there are still some great fights to look forward to.
Main Event: Daniel Cormier (C) vs Derrick Lewis (UFC Heavyweight Title)
Betting Odds: Cormier -555 or 1/7, Lewis +559 or 5/1
Of all the fights being rumoured to fill the main event slot at MSG this one had to be the most wildcard of bets, Jones vs Gustaffson, TJ Dillashaw vs Henry Cejudo, & Woodley vs Covington were some credible contenders even moving the now cancelled Poirier vs Diaz to a five round fight was a good suggestion. Never in my wildest dreams would I have thought Cormier and Lewis would be headlining this card, now it is, I’m 100% on board with it.
Cormier became only the second simultaneous two-weight UFC champion back in July when he knocked out the most successful Heavyweight Champion of all time inside of the first round,
if Cormier is successful in his defence at MSG he will become the only fighter to defend a title whilst holding two at the same time.
I feel Cormier doesn’t get the credit he deserves. He’s only ever lost to one guy, a guy who is often referred to on pure ability as the best ever, the first fight with Jones was competitive, the second was clouded with controversy after Jones’s failed drug test.
It’s too often forgotten Cormier has 3 defences of the light heavyweight title, he took out Anthony “Rumble” Johnson twice, a man who many believed could be a stylistic nightmare for Jon Jones. Cormier defeated Alexander Gustafsson who gave Jones the hardest fight of his career & Cormier also took a fight on short notice against Anderson Silva (Due to another PED violation for Jones), a situation where Cormier had far more to lose than gain.
After all that Cormier goes up a weight division to fight Stipe Miocic, a weight division covering 60lbs top to bottom, that in itself makes the jump in weight more difficult than any other. To put it into perspective the same weight separates 5 divisions in the UFC, from the featherweight division to the light heavyweight division.
Derrick Lewis isn’t the best fighter Daniel Cormier has come up against, the knockout threat, however, is the most lethal of any former opponent. Lewis has knocked out big heavyweights in his career, couple that with the weight advantage which will be significant on the night. If I had to guess I’d say Lewis will be 30lbs heavier on the night minimum.
Derrick Lewis has one way and only one way to win this fight, hit a home run, now usually that’s a desperate play but Lewis has done it on multiple occasions.
There’s no doubt that until the fight is over Derrick Lewis is always one punch away from winning, never mind the circumstances, never mind the opponent. Daniel Cormier has a serious fight on his hands.
Co-Main: Chris Weidman vs Jacare Souza
Betting Odds: Weidman -170 or 10/17, Jacare +164 or 7/5
Chris Weidman has had the most turbulent career in modern history, he went from being the man who stopped Anderson Silva’s legendary run as champion to suffering three consecutive stoppage losses. Weidman was on the verge of being cut before rescuing his place on the roster by defeating Kelvin Gastelum in July of 2017.
Gastelum has since defeated Michael Bisping & Jacare Souza whilst Weidman has been recovering from a surgery to his thumb. Kelvin Gastelum will now challenge Robert Whittaker for the Middleweight Title which sends Weidman back towards the pack of middleweight contenders.
When Weidman became champion at 29 years old he looked to be the man to beat at 185lbs, after two defences he was dethroned by Luke Rockhold. The middleweight division is so competitive right now you can go from being undefeated to suffering back to back losses in no time at all, that’s the story of Chris Weidman.
Jacare was involved in a title eliminator with Kelvin Gastelum earlier this year which he lost via split decision by the narrowest of margins. Jacare is an instinctive finisher with knockout power, he’s also one of the most decorated Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the world.
The last memorable victory was the devastating knockout of rising contender Derek Brunson.
Weidman & Jacare have managed to avoid one another despite being so closely positioned in the rankings for years, a fresh match-up in the division that keeps producing great fights, what’s not to like?.
Derek Brunson vs Israel Adesanya
Betting Odds: Brunson +280 or 5/2, Adesanya -278 or 3/10
These two gentlemen don’t like each other one bit, this became glaringly obvious during the UFC’s 25th-anniversary press conference.
I’ve been critical of the fight chosen to open a main card in the past, with this card they got it right.
Israel Adesanya brings some quality creative striking to the table,
he’s been carefully matched up to now & this is his first big step up.
Derek Brunson has only lost to the elite of the division since joining the UFC, Yoel Romero, Anderson Silva, Robert Whittaker, & Jacare Souza. This contest will act as a measure of Adesanya’s level, Brunson is no pushover but if Adesanya wants to come good on his word to “bury the division” he needs a good showing at UFC 230.
For Brunson this is a chance to slide under the radar, all eyes are on Adesanya to look the part, Brunson can go into this fight with minimal pressure or expectation.
It’s worth mentioning that during his fight with current champion Robert Whittaker, Brunson was a few punches away from victory before Whittaker rallied, on his day, Brunson is a genuine threat to anyone.
Predictions
Daniel Cormier vs Derrick Lewis (Cormier via Submission)
Chris Weidman vs Jacare Souza (Weidman via Decision)
David Branch vs Jared Cannonier (Branch via Decision)
Karl Roberson vs Jack Marshman (Roberson KO/TKO)
Derek Brunson vs Israel Adesanya (Adesanya Decision)