Main Event: TJ Dillashaw vs Cody Garbrandt 2 (UFC Bantamweight Title)
Betting Odds: Dillashaw -120 or 4/5, Garbrandt +108 or 1/1.
UFC 217 was one of the most memorable nights in recent memory with three championship fights on the same card all producing some sort of drama in one form or another, the title changed hands in each fight. The co-main event featured the two men headlining UFC 227 this Saturday night TJ Dillashaw & Cody Garbrandt.
TJ Dillashaw had won the Bantamweight title initially in 2014 defeating Renan Barao in spectacular fashion. After two successful defences, the returning former champion Dominick Cruz who was never beaten instead stripped of the title (through inactivity due to injuries) reclaimed the Bantamweight Championship edging a close split decision victory on his return.
Cruz fought Urijah Faber for the third time before being soundly beaten by Urijah’s teammate & top prospect Cody Garbrandt. Garbrandt vs Dillashaw was the obvious fight to make because TJ was also a member of Alpha male before things turned sour which ignited a feud between TJ and Team Alpha Male. The fight needed no extra promotion however, it was decided they would coach opposite teams on The Ultimate Fighter reality show. During the show, there were several altercations adding to the tension already present.
Garbrandt vs Dillashaw 1 Recap
The fight itself was as riveting as the heated exchanges we had witnessed previously on The Ultimate Fight show, Garbrandt carrying on the momentum of his superlative performance against Cruz started strong knocking down TJ Dillashaw in the closing seconds of round one.
TJ was clearly on unsteady legs, had the knockdown occurred 30 seconds earlier it may have been the end of the contest.
Dillashaw recovered by the beginning of the next round immediately answering back with a head kick.
The following minutes of the round played out like a game of cat and mouse, Grabrandt looking for a counter anticipating TJ would make a mistake in searching for the finish, TJ clearly looking to close the show with plenty of time still left in the round. As it happened they both found their moment exchanging hooks but ultimately Dillashaw landed the crucial punch which all but ended the fight.
Even after the fight had finished it was obvious the animosity between the two was still present.
TJ claimed in his post-fight interview he was sure the two would meet again, I’m certain he didn’t think it would be this soon.
Outside of the personal rivalry, the two are evenly matched in skill even though they have different styles. If they fought 10 times the fights could play out differently every time, that’s how little there is to split the two. If you were lucky enough to catch Robert Whittaker vs Yoel Romero 1 & 2 you would have noticed how the two fights were dissimilar to each other. The first was more of a tactical point scoring chess match the second was pure chaos, that’s the outcome you get when two equally skilled fighters have a chance to analyse a previous fight and adjust in a second encounter.
The point I’m trying to make is there’s no guarantee this fight will be a carbon copy of the first, whatever happens, it will be compelling viewing nonetheless. I’m expecting the type of fight that will challenge Whittaker vs Romero 2 for the best title fight of the year.
Co-Main Event: Demetrious Johnson vs Henry Cejudo 2 (UFC Flyweight Title)
Betting Odds: Johnson -494 or 2/11, Cejudo +435 or 4/1.
Another rematch on the card, the most dominant champion in UFC history Demetrious Johnson attempts to make the 12th defence of his title against former foe Henry Cejudo whom he handled with relative ease just over two years ago. An accumulation of knees to the midsection was enough to get the job done inside the opening round of the fight.
Challenging a champion is a question of timing in my opinion, you want to fight the champion at the right time, Cody Garbrandt catching Cruz at the tail end of his career after a catalogue of injuries is a perfect example of that, Cody may have beat Cruz in his prime but the variables were more favourable to Cody at the time they fought.
For Henry Cejudo the first title fight was too early. Cejudo hadn’t yet gained the experience required to seriously challenge Johnson, on top of inexperience Johnson was and still is very much in his prime. The timing was all wrong.
In the build-up to the first fight Cejudo was raw, the experience he needed to not beat Johnson but to understand what it would take to beat him he received during that defeat to the reigning Flyweight Champion. Unfortunately, that’s the most painful way to learn. This lead Cejudo to make some changes to his fighting style, add a few new elements to his game.
We’ve seen Cejudo since take a more risk-averse approach to his fights using more defensively sound striking whilst still sticking to his strengths when the situation requires it.
Against Wilson Reis, Cejudo displayed his new karate style movement which was very effective.
Against Sergio Pettis who is a more competent striker, Cejudo went back to his bread & butter using his superior wrestling to control the fight.
My biggest criticism of Cejudo is he fell in love with striking too much prior to his first title shot, getting involved in fights that didn’t necessarily suit his strengths. An Olympic gold medalist in wrestling should be using his wrestling as a weapon, in most cases a primary weapon. Henry Cejudo has the best chance of any current Flyweight contender to beat Demetrious Johnson because he is the only fighter in the division who has a huge skill superiority in one area, that being said Cejudo needs to apply it intelligently for that skill to be a factor.
Mighty Mouse is an expert in finding holes in opponents styles & he’ll be aware of Cejudo’s threats, the challenge for Cejudo is applying his strongest skill in a manner the champion isn’t prepared for, strategy is the key to Cejudo’s success in this fight which is something he’s definitely been working on.
Predictions
TJ Dillashaw vs Cody Garbrandt (Dillashaw KO/TKO)
Demetrious Johnson vs Henry Cejudo (Johnson Decision)
Thiago Santos vs Kevin Holland (Santos KO/TKO)
Polyana Viana vs JJ Aldrich (Viana Submission)
Cub Swanson vs Renato Moicano (Swanson Decision)
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