Amanda Nunes vs Raquel Pennington (UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship)
Betting odds: Nunes -520 or 2/11, Pennington +444 or 4/1.
The main event for this card was supposed to be Cris Cyborg vs Amanda Nunes which is probably the best fight you can make across the entire women’s roster right now. It was decided that Cyborg would instead make a meaningless title defence against Yana Kunitskaya to fill the headline slot at UFC 222 with a title fight after Max Holloway vs Frankie Edgar was cancelled through injury.
In place of Cyborg vs Nunes, we’ve got yet another meaningless title fight. Raquel Pennington is a former Ultimate Fighter winner, she’s competent everywhere without being great in any particular area. The challenger hasn’t been given this fight because she’s done anything outstanding to deserve it, there’s a lack of genuine contenders at this weight which makes her the best available choice.
Every fighter has a chance of winning so I’m not saying there’s no way Raquel Pennington can win, the problem she faces is she’s not had the required preparation for a fight with someone of Nunes’s quality. The last time Pennington set foot in an octagon was November of 2016, she earned a decision against Meisha Tate that night undoubtedly her biggest win to date. Since then nothing, no one was pushing Pennington for a title fight at that time so why she’s got one after such a long period of inactivity is beyond me. If Raquel Pennington is to be a championship calibre fighter, time and experience are needed but as of now, she’s in over her head.
I don’t mean to portray Pennington as a terrible fighter because she’s not, the problem is that Nunes is a great one. Fundamentally that’s the issue with this fight, to give Nunes trouble an opponent needs to present something special. Raquel Pennington is tough and durable, you need more than that against Nunes.
The brutality of Nunes’s style & finishes is unmatched at this weight class, it was almost hard to watch the way she dissected Meisha Tate at UFC 200.
Ronda Rousey didn’t fare any better, she was routed by Nunes in the most one-sided women’s title fight I’ve ever witnessed.
The only woman I see giving Nunes any trouble is Cris Cyborg, it’s a shame that’s not the fight at the top of this card.
Jacare Souza vs Kelvin Gastelum
Betting odds: Jacare -142 or 4/6, Gastelum +128 or 6/5.
The co-main is providing the competitive edge which is lacking at the top of the bill, uncertainty has surrounded the Middleweight division for the past two years, only recently have we seen some order restored with Robert Whittaker promoted to Undisputed Champion after Georges St-Pierre relinquished the title. With Whittaker fighting number one contender Yoel Romero next month, there’s a need to clarify who’s next in line.
The rankings were mostly ignored during Bisping’s run as the champ, he fought nobody ranked within the top five for over two years. As you can imagine the rankings have become rather cluttered, this fight pits number 2 against number 5. The two places in between are occupied by #3 Chris Weidman who is unable to compete as of this moment due to injuries & #4 Luke Rockhold, who’s fresh off of a loss to Yoel Romero.
The only two fighters inside the top five who are coming off victories & healthy enough to fight right now are Jacare Souza & Kelvin Gastelum, so one can assume the winner of this fight would be next in line for a title fight. To make this match-up even more appropriate than it already is the pair produced similarly impressive finishes last time out.
In the case of Gastelum, he’s been shockingly good since moving up to 185lbs even though he’s clearly undersized for the weight. The only hiccup during his middleweight run has been losing to Chris Weidman however, the fight was competitive enough to retain Gastelum’s stock.
Michael Bisping took a fight with Kelvin Gastelum shortly after being defeated by GSP, Gastelum disposed of Bisping with another stunning knockout to add to his highlight reel.
Jacare has been a stalwart of the Middleweight division, he’s gotten close to a title fight on two occasions only to fall short at the final hurdle. During his UFC run, he’s only ever lost to the two men in next month’s title fight which is no slight on Jacare’s overall record.
Jacare reminded us all what he is capable of when he emphatically dealt with Derek Brunson earlier this year.
Gastelum at 26 years old is a young, hungry fighter who’s enjoying the best form of his life just as he enters the prime of his athletic career, he’s got a solid wrestling base and possesses the gift of speed despite his soft appearance. Kelvin Gastelum maybe the only man to get hit cleanly by Tyron Woodley without hitting the deck which indicates how difficult Gastelum is to put away.
His opponent on Saturday night Jacare Souza can beat any Middleweight on the planet, including the two men he’s most recently lost to. One of the more clinical finishers in the world Souza can put any man to sleep standing or submit anybody who spends a prolonged period of time on the floor with him. There is simply nowhere to hide against Jacare.
To summarize this fight I would call it a battle of speed vs power between two of the most exciting fighters at 185lbs.
Vitor Belfort vs Lyoto Machida
Betting odds: Belfort +231 or 2/1, Machida -245 or 2/5.
One for the sentimentalists, before UFC became mainstream these two were icons of the sport. Belfort was the first real breakthrough talent the UFC ever produced. Machida was a complete enigma upon his arrival to the octagon, bringing an unorthodox style we’d not seen before.
Former champions now reduced to gatekeepers of the middleweight division, I think it’s fitting that they fight each other rather than one of the higher ranked fighters who they’d clearly be outmatched against at this stage of their careers.
This fight is a little too late in terms of relevancy, it would have been quite the spectacle a few years ago at which time they were delivering memorable knockouts like these.
Vitor Belfort has announced this will be his last fight, I won’t be at all surprised if Lyoto Machida announces his retirement from the sport at the conclusion of the contest either. Two of the last few former champions left standing from the early days of MMA, this fight is a milestone if nothing else to signal the end of an incredible era for the sport.
Predictions
Amanda Nunes vs Raquel Pennington (Nunes via KO/TKO)
Jacare Souza vs Kelvin Gastelum (Gastelum by Decision)
Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Cooper (Dern via Submission)
John Lineker vs Brian Kelleher (Lineker via KO/TKO)
Vitor Belfort vs Lyoto Machida (Machida by Decision)
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