Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

When: Saturday, the three-fight Fight Pass Preliminary card starts at 6:30pm EST, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 preliminary card begins at 8:00pm, and the five-fight pay per view card airs at 10:00pm EST.

Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit

UFC 195 is a tough sell, ending debatably the best year with what appears to be the worst UFC Pay-Per-View on paper. Carlos Condit, a natural born striker who most would say shouldn’t be fighting for the 170 strap just yet, versus Robbie Lawler, the newly minted welterweight king with one hell of a title defense under his new belt. If we take a peek at Robbie’s last three title fights, he barely won two, and barely lost the other. The welterweight division has been surprisingly more exciting since Georges St. Pierre’s’ departure, and also far more competitive. People were not happy with the way GSP or Hendricks fought. Hendricks may now be one of the most disliked top ranked fighters in the game. Now we’re presented with the exact opposite for the same title that GSP held for nine consecutive title defenses. Two fighters who are going in there to finish or gas out trying; likely without attempting a single takedown. Both Lawler and Condit are brawlers who have become more technical and well-rounded. It’s unlikely Lawler will take it to the ground, as Condit’s guard is dangerously offensive. Condit’s offensive wrestling is rare to see, so don’t expect it. Even if one of these fighters is dangerously hurt, they’ll more likely go out swinging than try a take down.

Pick:​ Condit by TKO, round three.

Stipe Miocic vs. Andrei Arlovski

Andrei Arlovski is under a lot of pressure here. If he would ever like to compete for the heavyweight title again, he needs this victory. It’s been over ten years since he lost it to Tim Sylvia. Miocic has looked sensational ever since he upset Roy Nelson, even his his loss to Dos Santos his stock went up. The biggest factor in this fight might come down to coaching. The Pitbull (Andrei’s Ring Alias, let’s let him have it as he was the pioneer of the nickname before the 37 others who followed), has what many consider to be the best coaches in MMA; Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn. Each of which coach recently has played a result in victories involving Holly Holm, Alistair Overeem, and even Condit (which is why I picked him). Stipe on the the other hand has a Cain Velasquez type approach, so let’s expect a few take down attempts. If it doesn’t go to the ground, these two 245 pound heavyweights are a coin flip in the striking game. Both exhibiting great boxing techniques with the occasional leg kick. Stipe may smother The Pitbull for three rounds, or it maybe a technicalstand up bout similar to that of Overeem’s recent victory; patient and precise. If Arlovski does win, it will be interesting to see if it is him or Overeem to get the next title shot.

Pick:​ Arlovski Decision

Lorenz Larkin vs. Albert Tumenov

Can you believe Larkin beat Lawler just a few years back in Strikeforce? Neither fighter here is ranked which disappoints me as it’s the 3rd fight on the per per view. The UFC has pushed the former main event fight night bout to the Fight Pass main event (Poirier vs. Duffee), in efforts to increase sales of the service and therefore degrading the main PPV card. The Russian born Tumenov has looked great at 4-1 in the UFC winning his last four. Lorenz is 2-0 at welterweight winning bonuses both times. Lorenz being the more technical overall kickboxer, I expect to see him pick Tumenov apart slowly. At any moment, The Russian could end the fight with a punch from either fist.

Pick:​ Larkin by TKO round three.