Main Event: Robert Whittaker vs Yoel Romero (UFC Middleweight Title)
Betting odds: Whittaker -200 or 10/21, Romero +201 7/4.
These two were barely separable the first time they met just shy of a year ago. On that occasion, they were contesting an interim belt, this time it’s for the Undisputed Middleweight Title.
Robert Whittaker was promoted to Undisputed Champion when Georges St-Pierre vacated the title due to complications with his health. Whittaker was unable to immediately defend his title earlier this year after being sidelined with an injury so Yoel Romero stepped in to replace him in his scheduled fight with Luke Rockhold instead.
Romero was victorious, now we have an exciting rematch on our hands.
The first fight as I mentioned previously was highly competitive. I had it 2-2 going into the final round, with 90 seconds left in round five Romero tripped over.
Whittaker took advantage of the situation by finishing the round on top.
I for one am happy this rematch is happening because these two have complementary styles. The last one was a chess match but it has the components to heat up at any minute.
Whittaker’s Blueprint to Victory
Neutralize Romero’s power.
Romero has a unique ability to explode quickly, something genetic that can’t be taught. He can end the fight in an instant regardless of what’s happened prior to that moment, we’ve seen him do it countless times already.
The power Romero carries comes with a price, he has to attack in bursts to avoid getting tired. Whittaker used a front kick to the body anytime he anticipated one of Romero’s charges last time to maintain distance. Even if Whittaker doesn’t employ the same tool this time he must avoid the charge to stay in the fight.
Avoid the takedown.
Romero is a former Olympic level wrestler, it’s in Whittaker’s best interest to keep the fight standing.
Any time he was taken down by Romero he managed to get up relatively quick without sustaining much damage.
It’s vital for Whittaker’s success in this fight to keep it a kickboxing match for the majority of the contest.
Be unpredictable.
Romero has fantastic awareness, he’s only had 15 MMA fights but he’s been competing at the highest level for a long time. His ability to recognize patterns is uncanny and as such Whittaker should refrain from repeating techniques over and over. The more Whittaker can keep Romero guessing the less chance he’s got of getting caught with something that can end the fight.
Romero’s Blueprint to Victory
Slow down the younger opponent.
In complete contrast to Romero, Robert Whittaker is an active striker. Instead of fighting in intervals Whittaker keeps chipping away making his opponents work. Yoel Romero can’t afford to go strike for strike with Whittaker so he needs to find a way to slow Whittaker down to a pace more suited to him. Romero did this effectively in the last fight by attacking Whittaker’s front leg.
You would expect Whittaker to be prepared for the low kicks this time but Romero could also attack the body to get the same desired result over the course of the fight.
Dictate where the fight takes place.
Being the more well-rounded fighter Romero has an advantage on the ground, he may not want to spend the entire fight grappling because energy depletion will become more of a factor. It would be a mistake on Romero’s part to spend the whole fight purely striking when Romero could control portions of the fight with his superior wrestling.
Whittaker will become hesitant with his offence if Romero can score a few takedowns, the threat of the takedowns will also create some deception which Romero can capitalize on to land strikes of his own.
Look for the Finish.
The two most likely outcomes of this fight are Whittaker by decision or Romero by stoppage. Whittaker managed to win a decision in the first fight even though his knee was compromised. If the fight goes 25 minutes you’d expect Whittaker to outwork Romero 8 times out of 10. Romero is a freak of nature but there are limits to what he can do at 41 years of age. He can’t keep a high pace with a man 14 years his junior, what he can do is take Whittaker out with the god given ability to manoeuvre his body from point a to b at a speed few athletes can match.
Romero’s best chance of victory is to create an opening and end the fight much like he did against Luke Rockhold. He was patient without letting Rockhold gain too much momentum & when the opportunity presented itself, Romero took it immediately.
No judges needed, no regrets, no feeling hard done by, this is Romero’s path of least resistance.
Co-Main Event: Rafael dos Anjos vs Colby Covington (UFC Interim Welterweight Championship)
Betting odds: Rafael Dos Anjos -125 or 8/11, Covington +113 or 11/10.
I’m not so sure we needed an interim title fight at 170lbs but we’ve got one anyway. Regardless of the belt, it’s an interesting match-up for many reasons.
Former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos has looked better than ever since moving up a weight class, wins over Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny, and most recently Robbie Lawler is a solid run in the welterweight division. The win over Lawler was particularly impressive as Lawler is a hard nights work for anyone in the world at that weight class.
Tyron Woodley is the only man to beat Lawler convincingly since his return to the UFC with a first-round knockout, after that you’d have to say RDA’s victory was the most dominant. Dos Anjos shut out Lawler over 5 rounds, all 3 judges scoring the fight 50-45 in favour of the Brazilian.
Colby Covington hasn’t been nearly as impressive in the octagon, he beat Demian Maia in Brazil on October of 2017 which is his only key win. Normally that wouldn’t be enough to earn anyone an interim title fight but Covington has been causing a stir with his behaviour outside of the octagon. Covington’s antics have propelled him to the position he finds himself in now.
https://youtu.be/nu_m3G3jjig
Covington hasn’t shown us anything spectacular, he’s picking his fights very intelligently. Maia, an older guy in the division who’s primarily a ground specialist was a good matchup for Colby seeing as wrestling is Colby’s strength which meant he could steer clear of the danger Maia presents.
Rafael dos Anjos has struggled with wrestlers before, tie that in with the fact that Dos Anjos is a smaller welterweight it’s fair to say Colby has more than a good chance of winning. If Colby does win he’ll get a title shot off the strength of two victories, talk about a shortcut to the top.
There are welterweights more deserving of this fight but money talks. People want to see Colby fight, for better or worse.
CM Punk vs Mike Jackson
Betting odds: CM Punk +190 or 9/5, Jackson -190 or 5/11.
Both of these guys have an MMA record of 0-1, Mickey Gall is their common opponent. CM Punk (real name Phil Brooks) is from the world of professional wrestling, WWE is his bread and butter which is a whole different ballgame to MMA.
There was some outcry over the decision to put him on the main card of a PPV event on his debut in 2016, it was justified after his performance proved Brooks lacked the experience to compete in the UFC.
Fast forward 20 months CM Punk is fighting a fellow novice, Mike Jackson is himself inexperienced so this fight may at least be competitive. We don’t know how long Brooks’s run in the UFC will last, this could well be his swansong but he’s desperate to prove a point to the naysayers.
Predictions
Robert Whittaker vs Yoel Romero (Whittaker KO/TKO)
Rafael dos Anjos vs Colby Covington (Dos Anjos Decision)
Holly Holm vs Megan Anderson (Holm Decision)
Andrei Arlovski vs Tai Tuivasa (Tuivasa KO/TKO)
CM Punk vs Mike Jackson (Jackson KO/TKO)
All video content belongs to UFC/Zuffa LLC.