2018 NBA Playoffs Probabilities and Series Predictions
I’m giddy like a school kid … it’s finally here. The first round of the 2018 NBA playoffs schedule has been released. It’s like a huge weight has been lifted … all the craziness —especially in the West—with final stretch jockeying to move up in seeding … and oh wow if this hasn’t been an awesomely wild ride!
Before we get into matchups, let’s look at the predictive power rankings probabilities of winning the whole things from Team Rankings:
- The Houston Rockets 35.2%
- The Toronto Raptors 26.5%
- The Golden State Warriors 18.7%
- The Philadelphia 76ers 4.8%
- The Boston Celtics 4.6%
- The San Antonio Spurs 1.6%
- The Portland Trail Blazers 1.3%
- Everyone Else under 1%
Specific odds for each playoff series have not yet been released but the betting odds have been updated at trusted online shops like Betonline. It is interesting to see the slight disparity between Team Rankings predictive algorithms and the sportsbooks odds.
The Golden state Warriors are actually still the favorites to win the Western Conference at Even Money. The Rockets are just behind at +125 (1.25 to 1), followed by the Thunder at +2000 (20 to 1), the Trail Blazers +2500 (25 to 1) and the Spurs +3300 (33 to 1).
On the Eastern front, the Cavaliers are the favorites at +125 (1.25 to 1). They are followed closely by the Raptors at +150 (1.5 to 1), the 76ers at +600 (6 to 1), then the Celtics at +2000 (20 to 1) and the Heat and Bucks both at +3300 (33 to 1).
I put a lot of weight into Team Rankings algorithms and I agree with them putting the Rockets and Raps at the top, but for the rest, I have to agree with the implied probability shown by the betting odds. There is no way that the Spurs are better than the Thunder let alone the Trail Blazers at this point, but I am a bit torn on the Celtics and 76ers probabilities. Sure the Sixers went on a 10-0 run, but are they really better equipped mentally and physically to go deeper than the Celtics?
Series Matchups
#1 Rockets vs #8 T-Wolves | #1 Raptors vs. #8 Wizards
These two series’ are pretty easy to call. The Rockets and Raptors both just might sweep Minnesota and Washington in four games. The deepest these two series go for both teams is 5 games.
#2 Warriors vs. #7 Spurs | #2 Celtics vs. #7 Bucks
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Warriors held on to their #2 spot solely based off of the fact that they won so many games early on. Now, however, they are in trouble. I don’t think the Spurs will beat them without Kawhi Leonard, but they could … GSW is banged up … but the Spurs have fallen off as well. I fully expected the #4 and #5 spots to be filled by the Thunder and Spurs, but San Antonio took a big slide backward.
The Celtics should handle the Bucks, but it won’t be easy. Both teams are 6-4 over their last 10. The Greek Freak can create some matchup issues and take this series further than the Celtics want to go. Ultimately, I think playoff experience will carry Boston through to round two.
#3 Trail Blazers vs. #6 Pelicans | #3 76ers vs. #6 Miami Heat
A week ago, I really expected the Blazers to be facing the Utah Jazz. I actually would have preferred that being a bit a Rip City fan. The Pelicans offer a slightly tougher matchup and have split high-scoring wins this season. But the lack of Cousins and Portlands home-court advantage should see them win the day.
The 76ers are on fire. They have a rhythm set and are playing some of the best ball they have in years. Miami is a couple of points better on the defensive end of the ball, but the differential offensively is just too much. The Heat go cold and fall in Round-1.
#4 Thunder vs. #5 Jazz | #4 Cavaliers vs. #5 Pacers
A few short weeks ago the Utah Jazz were riding the cusp of being on the outside looking in. Since then, they’ve climbed the ranks to get a #5 berth and finished with the same record as the Thunder. The Jazz are in top form, winning 7 of their last 10 and I think they are going to give Westbrook and the boys from OKC some real trouble. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Thunder win the series, but I have a feeling that the Jazz are going to shock the world as underdogs and move further down the playoff path.
Both the Pacers and Cavaliers have had a great final 10 regular season games. But the Pacers lack one thing that the Cavaliers still have … Lebron James. Sure, there has been some moves within the Cavs locker room, but there is still a TON of playoff experience that will be stepping out on the court in Round-1. Do the Cavs have enough to get back to the Finals? I don’t know. But they definitely have enough to make short work of the Pacers.